Chelsea v Arsenal Tips: Expect the home team to accumulate bookings

Chelsea host pacesetters Arsenal in the Premier League’s featured game this weekend. Who will come out on top in Sunday’s lunchtime kickoff? Robin Bairner provides his predictions.

Roles reversed

Football fans will see a North London derby with a difference as Arsenal visit Stamford Bridge with the aim of reaching the World Cup break at the top of the table. In the recent past, Chelsea have been the ones that have tried to fight for top spot.

The Gunners have been near perfect so far this season. Mikel Arteta’s side has won 10 of their 12 matches and established themselves as bona fide candidates to dethrone two-time champions Manchester City, who remain 1.22 favourites to win the title.

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Chelsea, meanwhile, face a race to simply make the top four. After a record spend last summer, Graham Potter’s side is winless in three league matches and now find themselves in sixth. Defeat against their local rivals would crank up the pressure on the Blues’ new manager.

Pottering around

The initial bounce that Chelsea seemed to enjoy following Thomas Tuchel’s exit and the appointment of Potter has gone. Premier League draws against Brentford and Manchester United were followed by a calamitous 4-1 loss against Brighton last weekend, which was made doubly embarrassing given it was the Seagulls’ first victory since their old boss departed.

In the meantime, the Blues have picked up a couple of Champions League wins against Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb, yet European progress is taken as standard given their group. 

They were, however, able to rotate to some extent in midweek and midfielder Denis Zakaria made a scoring debut. The most notable incident, though, was Ben Chilwell limping off with a hamstring injury that rules him out for the foreseeable future. With Wesley Fofana, Reece James and N’Golo Kante also missing, Chelsea’s physios are being kept busy.

It's been nearly two years since Chelsea have lost consecutive league matches - they never suffered back-to-back defeats under Tuchel - and it would be seen as a blow to Potter’s early credibility if they were to go down on Sunday. Interestingly, Potter has a good record against Arsenal with four wins from eight matches.

Gunners seek another level

Arsenal, meanwhile, remain a team full of confidence. After a 1-1 draw against Southampton and a defeat to PSV in the Europa League, they have bounced back impressively. Nottingham Forest were swept aside last weekend and a narrow victory was achieved against Zurich in midweek – a match in which they made considerable changes.

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The upbeat attitude of the club was reflected in comments made by Mikel Arteta after Thursday’s match, in which he suggested they are now looking at signing players in January of “another level”. In short, this is a team eyeing up deals that will make them even more serious rivals at the top of the standings.

Arsenal travel to Chelsea with good reason for optimism. They have won their last two at Stamford Bridge and have an excellent recent record in Premier League London derbies, winning each of their last four.

Value on Arsenal

The market has this down as a close-run game, with Chelsea marginal favourites at 2.74. Given the form of the respective clubs, both in terms of recent weeks and the past history of this fixture, that is perhaps a little unjustified. I would rather back Arsenal in the ‘Draw no bet’ market.

Value can also be found in the card markets - look for Chelsea to accumulate the most bookings. They have seen 23 cards to Arsenal’s 19 this season, and this fixture tends to see players from the home team enter the referee’s book with more regularity (three of the last four occasions). 

With a need to win and a feisty home crowd behind them, expect the Blues to be fired up and put in some big tackles.

Chelsea v Arsenal predictions

Back Arsenal draw no bet @ 1.85
Back Chelsea to have more cards @ 2.3