Focus Fixture: Will Man City start with a win at Stamford Bridge?

Chelsea host Manchester City at Stamford Bridge for the headlining act in the opening weekend of Premier League action. Enzo Maresca faces his former mentor in his first competitive game as Blues boss.

The Form

Enzo Maresca is under no illusions that it will take some time for him to implement his style at Chelsea. They’ve won just one of their five pre-season games and looked shaky defensively. Unfortunately for the Blues, they face the champions in their opening game so there is no time to ease into it.

Chelsea endured a difficult season under Mauricio Pochettino but there were signs that things were starting to turn towards the end of the campaign. A good run of form was enough for the Blues to secure European football but it wasn’t enough to keep Pochettino in a job.

Manchester City overcame Arsenal and Liverpool in last season’s title race. Pep Guardiola’s side became the first team to win the title for four consecutive seasons and they are the favourites to make it five this term.

Pep has been without several of his key players in pre-season with several going deep into major tournaments with their countries. This has yielded a mixed bag of results but the City boss will be delighted with the Community Shield victory over Manchester United last weekend.

The Runners and Riders

After an injury hit 2023/24 season, Chelsea will be delighted to have almost all of their players available here. Enzo Maresca has a bloated squad at his disposal so finding his best eleven could take some time. Reece James is the only player set to miss this one.

Phil Foden, John Stones and Kyle Walker all returned to training for Manchester City earlier in the week but Pep could opt to leave some of them out here. Rodri will almost definitely miss this game after an extended break. Jack Grealish will be assessed ahead of the game but those are the only potential absentees for the champions.

What They Said

Enzo Maresca has been keen to point out that he won’t try to copy Manchester City at Chelsea. Enzo previously worked for the champions but has said that the personnel will dictate elements of his style. The Italian said, “The idea is that idea, but probably we need time because the players also need to understand what way we want to play and it’s different.”

Pep Guardiola was proud of his players following their win over Manchester United at Wembley but is targeting further success. The City boss said, “Now we see how the players come back. The target now is not to win the Premier League, it is 'OK, next game... try and win it'. This is what we have to do."

Selection

Chelsea games ranked highly for fouls last season with an average of 24 per game. This led to their matches seeing the most cards in the Premier League with an average of 5.61 per game. That’s well above the league average of 4.53 in the division overall.

Manchester City matches saw very few fouls and subsequently, very few cards. The 18.71 fouls per City game was the fewest in the division. Pep Guardiola's sides also saw an average of just four cards but there were plenty of yellows when they faced Chelsea.

The teams shared the spoils in a thrilling draw in this fixture last season but importantly, there were eight cards in the match. The most recent head-to-head came in the FA Cup and there were five cards in that match.

Anthony Taylor refereed that 4-4 draw at Stamford Bridge. He officiated four Chelsea games last season and this bet landed in all of them with 6.25 cards on average.

Recommended Bet: Over 4.5 cards at 1.65

Bet Builder Tip

Over 5.5 cards feature in our bet builder for this match but we are also backing both teams to score. 

Chelsea’s home matches last season saw an average of 3.68 goals. Only three team’s home matches in the Premier League saw the net found more frequently. They have scored an average of 2.9 goals in their last 10 home matches so expect them to find the net here.

Manchester City scored the most goals in the division last season with an average of 2.53. They have scored in five of their last six visits to this ground so both teams to score looks a good bet.

The other betting angle is for Manchester City to have under 15.5 shots in the match. Despite being the most dangerous attacking side in the top flight for a number of seasons. Pep Guardiola’s side have averaged just 13.13 shots per game during that run.

Chelsea conceded an average of 13.58 shots per home game last season. They also faced Man City in pre-season. Pep’s team managed just 10 shots in that one.

Recommended Bet: Over 5.5 cards, both teams to score & under 15.5 shots for Manchester City at 7.40