Championship Play-Off Final Bet Builder Tip: Who will win football's richest game?

Two of last season’s relegated sides in Leeds and Southampton do battle at Wembley searching for an instant return to the Premier League on Sunday afternoon.

Leeds steamrolled Norwich in the semi-finals. After a drab 0-0 draw at Carrow Road, the Whites demolished the Canaries at Elland Road to set up a date with destiny in the play-off final. 

On paper, Daniel Farke has arguably the best squad in the league at his disposal, with an abundance of attacking talent to choose from. However, so often we have seen his side cower when playing away from Elland Road, perhaps an indication of the sheer reliance on a boisterous home atmosphere and individual star quality to bail him out. 

Still, a play-off final is not a feat to be fretted at, and Leeds have a real opportunity of achieving instant promotion back to the promised land. 

They missed out on automatic promotion by six points having won just one of their last six games, slipping into third place and falling victim to the ridicule of the rest of the country. One of these defeats came on the final day to Sunday’s opponents, completing a double for The Saints. 

Southampton finished one place and three points behind their Yorkshire opponents. Russell Martin’s side also played out a stalemate in their semi-final first leg, before dispatching West Brom 3-1 at St Mary’s. 

While the playoffs are a lottery, the third and fourth-best sides in the league have been rewarded with a place in the final, with the duo finishing some way in front of the chasing pack.  

The double that the Saints inflicted on Leeds is sure to be at the front of the minds of those on the South Coast, despite Southampton heading into this game as underdogs. Their price probably owes to their inconsistency – something Martin needs to iron out if his side are to gain promotion and survive in the Premier League. 

Southampton and Russell Martin are renowned for their possession-based football, with the Saints averaging 65% possession – the most in the league. However, in both meetings this season Leeds have had more possession, so we should be in for a fascinating tactical battle at Wembley.

The Runners and Riders

Centre-back Pascal Strujik is still out with the groin injury suffered at Preston on boxing day, while Patrick Bamford remains out with a knee injury. 

Daniel Farke elected to play without a recognised striker in the 0-0 draw at Carrow Road, with Leeds lacking a focal point. The second leg saw Joel Piroe make a start, with Leeds looking much more dynamic and fluid going forward. The German has a huge decision on whether to stick with his pragmatic ways or twist and allow his creative players to flourish.

Southampton’s young goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu tends to split opinion but is out with an injury so Alex McCarthy is set to start in his place again. Young Spanish full-back Juan Larios has missed all season with injury, while Scottish veteran Stuart Armstrong missed the run-in with a hamstring injury that keeps him out for Sunday.

Like Farke’s striker dilemma, Martin has a big decision on his hands. In the final day victory over Leeds, he reverted to a back five, sticking with this formation in the 0-0 draw at West Brom, perhaps to combat the Baggies set piece threat. However, Martin switched back to his favoured 4-3-3 in the home victory, with his side looking untouchable at times. 

Selection

With so much riding on the game and so much up in the air in terms of tactical set-up, we should be in for a tight, cagey and pragmatic game. Russell Martin is one of the most tactically astute managers in England and is bound to have plans in place to nullify Leeds attacking threat. Daniel Farke tends to rely on individual quality, in turn occasionally nullifying his own side’s creativity. 

It would not surprise me to see Southampton pack out the midfield and look to slow the game down against a frantic Leeds side. It would not also be a surprise for Farke to go striker-less from the start and play more pragmatically. 

Championship playoff finals are notoriously close affairs, with last year’s final between Luton and Coventry being decided on penalties. Despite both these sides being packed with star quality throughout, there is a hint of pragmatism from both managers, which could lead to a slow, low-scoring affair. 

Best Bet: Will there be a Penalty Shootout – Yes @ 5.20

Bet Builder Tip

Both games this season have been entertaining, with an element of spikiness added to the mix, with five and seven cards brandished in the two meetings.

Interestingly, John Brooks was the referee for the first clash between the sides- the 33-year-old’s only Championship match this season. He has been tasked with officiating Sunday’s match. Brooks is averaging 4.42 cards per game this season, so we should see a fair few brandished. 

The sides incidentally have identical records in terms of opposition yellow cards. They rank joint second for yellow cards drawn, with only Sunderland (2.89) drawing more yellow cards than Southampton and Leeds (2.59).

Will Smallbone was carded after 18 minutes in the 3-1 win in September. The 24-year-old has now been booked in eight of his 35 league starts this season. In the season closer at Elland Road, he made two fouls and was perhaps lucky not to be booked.

The main caveat for this bet is the attacking talent Leeds possess – most notably Georginio Rutter. The 22-year-old is fouled on average 2.71 times per game – a statistic that puts him in the top 2 percentile for this metric in the league. A whopping 39 centre midfielders have been booked against Leeds in 48 league games. 

Opposition centre midfielders have been booked 44 times against Southampton in the league this season, including Ilia Gruev of Leeds three weeks ago. That was the Bulgarians seventh yellow in 20 starts, with the 24-year-old averaging 0.35 yellow cards and 1.42 fouls per 90. 

Smallbone and Gruev are both not afraid to get stuck in and their direct opponents draw plenty of fouls, so the 10.00 on offer for both to be booked looks good value for money in such a big game. 

Best Bet: Ilia Gruev and Will Smallbone to be booked @ 10.00

Recommended Bets

Will there be a Penalty Shootout – Yes @ 5.20
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