Champions League Tipsheet: Who will get through to the semi-finals?

After last week’s dramatic first leg ties, the Champions League quarter-finals are back this week with more mouth-watering contests. We have a tip for each of them.

Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid

20:00 Tuesday, TNT Sports

Borussia Dortmund got back to winning ways by beating Borussia Monchengladbach at the weekend. They lost last week’s first leg in Madrid 2-1 and will need to be at the races from the off to earn a place in the Champions League semi-finals.

Atletico Madrid have shown they have the nous in this competition. Diego Simeone’s side have gone deep in this competition several times in his tenure. He will have confidence that his team can get the job done on Tuesday night.

Edin Terzic’s side found themselves two goals down at half-time in the reverse fixture. They attacked with real impetus after the break and managed to claw a goal back. They racked up a total of eight corners in that one. As a result, we are backing the home side to win the race to seven corners here.

Dortmund are averaging 7.33 corners per home game in 2024. The fact they start this game a goal behind should mean we see an increased sense of urgency to get the ball forward. This can only help the corner count.

Simeone’s side are conceding an average of seven corners per away game in the Champions League this season. They have a lead to defend here so we should see the home side enjoy the lion’s share of possession.

Tip: Corners race to 7 – Dortmund @ 2.00

Barcelona vs PSG

20:00 Tuesday, TNT Sports

Barcelona ran out 3-2 victors at the Parc De Princes in the first leg. The slender lead undoubtedly makes Xavi’s side the favourites but the Parisiens have the quality to overturn the deficit at Camp Nou.

Luis Enrique’s first season as PSG boss has been largely successful. They have one hand on the trophy in Ligue 1 but the Champions League is what matters in the French capital. There is no shame in being eliminated by Barcelona but they will want to go down swinging. 

PSG need their big players to perform so it’s time for Kylian Mbappe to shine. It looks increasingly likely that this will be his final season at the club. The forward’s blend of blistering pace, ball control and shooting ability make him impossible for defenders to pin down. He has scored 24 goals in 26 games in Ligue 1. Mbappe has also managed to score six goals in nine Champions League matches.

Mbappe has already won the World Cup but he is yet to lift the Champions League. Despite never getting his hands on the trophy, he has had some memorable moments in this tournament. One of those moments was a hat-trick at the Camp Nou. I’m backing him to make amends for a quiet first leg and find the net this week.

Tip: Kylian Mbappe to score at 2.08

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal 

20:00 Wednesday, TNT Sports

Arsenal’s season is in danger of unravelling. They handed the initiative to Manchester City in the Premier League title race by losing 2-0 to Aston Villa at the weekend. Arteta’s men now face a tough trip to the Allianz Arena.

Bayern Munich had to witness Bayer Leverkusen end their run of 11 consecutive Bundesliga title wins at the weekend. Thomas Tuchel’s side have been off the pace this season so the Champions League is their last hope for a trophy.

Harry Kane made the switch to Germany to win trophies. He will need to come up trumps on Wednesday if he is to end his wait for silverware this season. The England captain has delivered on his part of the bargain and cannot be blamed for Bayern's woes so we are picking him to score here.

Kane has scored 32 goals in 28 Bundesliga matches. He scored from the spot in the first leg at the Emirates to take his Champions League tally to seven goals in nine appearances. The striker has a non-penalty xG of 0.72 per 90 minutes this season. He has managed to overperform this by scoring an average of 0.9 non-penalty goals per 90. Kane also takes spot kicks so the price on offer for him to find the net appeals.

As a former Tottenham player, this game means a lot to Kane, He has scored 15 goals in 20 games against Arsenal in his career.

Tip: Harry Kane to score at 2.28

Manchester City vs Real Madrid

20:00 Wednesday, TNT Sports

Manchester City sit top of the Premier League and they are favourites to win the Champions League and FA Cup. Repeating their treble is a very real possibility for Pep Guardiola’s side. 

Real Madrid were hammered at the Etihad last season after earning a draw in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu. Carlo Ancelotti will hope to conjure up a plan to halt this Manchester City juggernaut on Wednesday night.

There is no doubting the quality of Real Madrid and their manager but the signs are ominous ahead of this one. Manchester City have won 17 and drawn one of their Champions League matches at the Etihad since the start of the 2021/22 campaign. They are scoring an average of 3.22 goals per game and conceding just 0.78 over that period.

The visitors haven’t lost since September 24. However, taking on Pep Guardiola’s side is a different challenge altogether. Real Madrid were beaten 4-0 in this fixture last season, finishing the game with an xG 2.35 less than Manchester City’s.

Tip: Manchester City to win at 1.67

Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win race to seven corners vs Atletico Madrid @ 2.00
Back Mbappe to score vs Barcelona @ 2.08
Back Kane to score vs Arsenal @ 2.28
Back Manchester City to beat Real Madrid @ 1.67