Champions League Outright Betting Tips: Can anyone stop Mbappé and Los Blancos?

The new format for the Champions League this season means we will see Europe’s elite in action more frequently with an extended group stage but expect to see the usual suspects fighting it out for the ultimate prize come the end of the campaign.  

Manchester City – 3.90

Manchester City were beaten by Real Madrid in the semi-finals of this competition last season. Pep Guardiola’s side racked up a total of 33 shots in their second leg against Madrid at the Etihad. They finished the game with an xG 1.3 higher than their opponent’s but succumbed to defeat via the penalty shootout after the scores were level at 1-1 after extra time. 

The Citizens are the favourites to win this season's Champions League and it’s easy to see why. Pep Guardiola has created a footballing juggernaut since moving to England and they will take some stopping here. 

City haven’t lost a home game in Europe since 2018, when they were beaten by Lyon. Since then, they have played 32 Champions League matches at the Etihad, scoring an average of 3.03 goals per game and conceding just 0.76. That remarkable run has seen them hammer some of the heavyweights of European football. The most emphatic wins were a 4-0 win over Real Madrid and a 3-0 win over Bayern Munich. 

Real Madrid – 4.80

Real Madrid are the undisputed kings of the European Cup having lifted the trophy on 15 occasions but they will face a battle to retain their crown this season. In the group stages, their toughest tests will be against AC Milan, Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund, the team they beat in last season’s final.

Los Blancos finally added Kylian Mbappe to their squad in the summer, but striking a balance with the attack hasn’t been easy in the early stages of this season. They have drawn two of their opening four matches in La Liga, but Carlo Ancelotti has the experience to get the best out of this squad. 

In the past three seasons, Real Madrid have played a total of 38 Champions League matches, more than any other side. They have also scored more goals than any of their rivals. Their average of 2.13 goals per game is only bettered by Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Bayern Munich. Los Blancos have always seemed to rise to the occasion in this competition and they will take some stopping once again. 

Arsenal – 9.60

Arsenal returned to the Champions League last season for the first time since 2017. They are near the top of the betting thanks to the financial dominance of the Premier League and they are expected to compete for the crown once again. 

Mikel Arteta’s side boasted the best defensive record in the Premier League last season as they conceded an average of just 0.76 goals per game. The underlying data also indicated that Arsenal are very strong at both ends of the pitch. In last season's Champions League, Arsenal had the third-lowest xGA with an average of 0.89 per game. Their solid defence will make them difficult to beat this time around. 

The Gunners were beaten by Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals last season. Hosting PSG and heading to Milan to take on Inter are the standout clashes for Arteta’s side. Their squad looks well-equipped to deal with the rigours of competing on all fronts so we should see them in the later rounds once again. 

Barcelona – 12.50

Bringing the Champions League back to the Camp Nou has been an obsession for Barcelona, an obsession that took them to the brink of financial ruin. However, things are looking up in Catalonia. They have made a perfect start to the domestic season and they have a squad that is capable of taking the game to anyone.

Barca shocked many by sacking Xavi at the end of last season. Hansi Flick is the man they have chosen to lead the club forward and he arrives with a sterling reputation. The German has previously won the treble with Bayern Munich. The Blaugrana have scored 13 goals in their first four league matches and their menacing attack could prove difficult for anyone to shackle. 

Last season, Barcelona made it to the last eight of the Champions League. They secured a 3-2 win away in Paris in the first leg of their quarter-final clash with PSG. However, a red card for Ronald Araujo at the Camp Nou when the team were 1-0 up proved costly. The Culers have been left to wonder what might have been had it not been for the dismissal but Barcelona are poised to compete once again. 

Liverpool – 14.0

Like Real Madrid, Liverpool also have a great affinity with this competition. The Reds were absent from the tournament last season having finished outside the top four in the previous campaign but they will be looking to reach the latter stages here.

Arne Slot has made a dream start to life as Liverpool manager. He has big shoes to fill but the team are evolving under his tutelage. The team have kept a clean sheet in their opening three league matches. They are riding high after putting Manchester United to the sword at Old Trafford and the underlying data is hugely promising. They have the highest xG in the Premier League with 8.75. They also have the lowest xGA with 2.30.

This Liverpool team will continue Slot but the new manager will be keen to tap into the club's rich history in the Champions League. The Reds have appeared in three of the last seven finals.

Inter Milan- 24.00

Inter Milan were beaten finalists in the 2022/23 season. Simone Inzaghi’s men played very well in the final against Manchester City but were unable to make the most of their chances. They accumulated an xG of 1.68 in that game, 0.69 more than Pep Guardiola’s side. 

Simone Inzaghi has proven himself to be one of the most astute tacticians in world football. His Inter side play with attacking swagger but also have plenty of steel in the defensive third. They scored an average of 2.34 goals per game in the league last season and only conceded 0.58 per game. 

They were dumped out of this competition in the round of 16 by Atletico Madrid but they will fancy their chances of going a lot further this time around. The Nerazzurri won Serie A at a canter last season but were unable to strut their best stuff in the Champions League. They will be hoping to remedy that this term and the odds are appealing for those who like a little bit of a long shot. 

Recommended Bets

Winner – Manchester City @ 3.90
Longer Odds Bet – Inter Milan @ 24.00