Champions League Betting Tips: Will Mbappe and Kane get on the scoresheet again?

We have reached the semi-final stage of the Champions League. The quarter-finals saw favourites Manchester City dumped out on penalties by Real Madrid and Bayern Munich ease past Arsenal. On the other side of the draw, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid were knocked out by PSG and Borussia Dortmund respectively.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid

20:00 Tuesday, TNT Sports 1

The Champions League semi-finals get underway with a mouth-watering encounter at the Allianz Arena. Real Madrid are now the favourites to win the Champions League after edging past Manchester City in the quarter-finals. However, they are the underdogs on the night when they travel to Germany.

Bayern beat Arsenal in the last round and need to deliver another exceptional performance if they are to get the better of Carlo Ancelotti’s side.  It has already been confirmed that Thomas Tuchel will depart the club in the summer but he will be hoping to do it with another Champions League medal in his possession.

Ancelotti already has four to his name. He won two with AC Milan and two with Real Madrid. With the La Liga trophy almost in the bag, Real are fully focused on securing their 15th Champions League trophy.

The onus to attack is on the home side here. They know they will likely need a lead to sake into the second leg at the Bernabeu so expect them to be on the front foot here. Ancelotti showed he is willing to adopt a counter-attacking approach in their European away matches and while Bayern aren’t as strong as City, they could still rack up a few corners here. Real lost the corner count 15-0 in the 90 minutes of regulation time against Pep’s side. RB Leipzig had seven corners to Real’s three in their round of 16 clash in Germany.

Therefore, we are backing Bayern to have at least two more corners than their opponents. This bet has won in all five of their Champions League matches at the Allianz Arena this season. They are averaging 6.4 and conceding 2.4 over that period.

Recommended bet: Bayern -1.5 corners at 2.14 

Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain

20:00 Wednesday, TNT Sports 1

Whoever wins this tie will be the lesser fancied of the sides in the final but football is anything but predictable. These teams went toe-to-toe in the group stages. PSG took four points from a possible six in those games but still finished behind Dortmund in Group F.

Domestically, Dortmund will be disappointed with how their season has panned out. They missed out on the Bundesliga title on the final day of the last campaign but are currently fifth in the table.

As you’d expect, PSG have a healthy lead at the top of Ligue 1, but the league title has been an expectation at the club since Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani bought the club in 2011. The Champions League has been the elusive prize and Luis Enrique has the chance to deliver it in his first season in charge.

Kylian Mbappe is widely expected to finally make the move to Real Madrid this summer. His contract is up and PSG are seemingly resigned to losing him on a free transfer but the exorbitant sum they paid for and paid to keep him would all be worth it if his last act in the club’s shirt was to lift the Champions League.

Mbappe is unlike any other player in world football. His pace is scarcely believable and his ability with the ball makes him impossible to pin down. He is viewed as the heir to the throne with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo no longer at the top of their game. Mbappe scored two in the win at the Camp Nou in the last round and I fancy him to get a goal here.

The French forward has already scored eight goals in 10 Champions League appearances this season. Mbappe has shown he can deliver in the big games and his hat-trick in the 2022 World Cup final is the best illustration of that. 

He ranks in the 92nd percentile for non-penalty xG across Europe’s top five leagues. He is in the top 5% on metrics such as successful take-ons, touches in the opposition box, and progressive passes played and received. Dortmund certainly have their hands full on Wednesday night.

Recommended bet: Kylian Mbappe to score @ 2.08

Recommended Bets

Back Bayern -1.5 corner handicap vs Real Madrid @ 2.14
Back Kylian Mbappe to score @ 2.08