Focus Fixture: Can Aston Villa continue remarkable home form against Man City

Apart from Aston Villa fans and the family of former Villa hero Jack Grealish, the champions visit to Villa Park wouldn’t have been circled by many as a key match this season. However, the transformation the Midlands side have been on in the last year has made it one.

The Form

Only City, 26, have won more Premier League games than Villa, 22, in 2023. As a result, the hosts now find themselves fourth in the Premier League table. Since Unai Emery replaced Steven Gerrard as Villa boss just over 12 months ago, they have taken 78 points from 39 games. 

He has turned Villa Park into a fortress, with the longest winning home run in the league with 13 matches. Emery’s side have not dropped points at home in 290 days, and even then it took two stoppage time goals from Arsenal to beat them. If Villa do come out on top in this one then they will equal the club record for successive home wins which was set between December 1930 and October 1931.

The week before the Arsenal fixture last February, Villa lost 3-1 to City at the Etihad as they played the top two sides back to back. League leaders Arsenal, travel to Villa Park on Saturday to complete another tough set of back to back fixtures. The next two games will provide us with a very interesting barometer of where Emery’s side could find themselves in the long run. 

This match will also see the two best attacks in the league taking each other on. City, unsurprisingly, lead the way with 36 goals with Villa following closely behind on 33. Plenty of goals are expected in this mouth watering clash.

Manchester City’s quest for a record fourth league title in a row looked well on course, but three draws in a row has seen them drop to third in the table. In their last four games across all competitions, they have conceded 10 goals at a rate of 2.5 a game. Compare that to their first 18 matches of the season when they conceded just 0.8 per game and you can see which area of the pitch the champions are struggling. This is not something we have seen from Pep Guardiola’s recent sides and it will be a concern for the manager.

Villa have been in more stable form with the 2-1 away win at Tottenham ten days ago a particular highlight. However, they did need a 90th minute header from Ollie Watkins and a few great saves from Emi Martinez to salvage a point at Bournemouth on Sunday. 

The head-to-head record does not make positive reading for Aston Villa fans, they have not beaten City since September 2013, when a 75th minute Andreas Weimann goal was enough to clinch a 3-2 victory. 

In this fixture last season, a Steven Gerrard-led Villa side drew 1-1 with Manchester City. In the match before that, on the final day of the 2021/22 season, Villa gave Guardiola’s side a big scare going 2-0 up on the final day of the season before conceding three goals in the space of five minutes to win 3-2 and give City their second title in a row. 

The Runners and Riders

Aston Villa will be very happy to see Rodri missing from City’s squad. The midfielder picked up his fifth yellow card of the season in the draw with Tottenham on Sunday which ruled him out of this match. The Spanish midfielder has been excellent so far this season, his suspension earlier in the season was seen as pivotal as City lost the three games he missed for a red card offence against Nottingham Forest - they haven’t tasted defeat in the league since.

There will be no return to Villa Park for Jack Grealish either who suffered the same fate as Rodri in reaching the same yellow card threshold. Jeremy Doku is also a doubt after hobbling off against Spurs, leaving uncertainty over who will take up the left wing position.

City are also still without the influential Kevin De Bruyne, who is targeting a January return from the injury picked up on the opening weekend. 

Guardiola may be inclined to bring John Stones back into his starting XI. Stones has been working his way back to fitness and has appeared as an unused substitute in the last three matches, and now looks likely to return.

The hosts are still without Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings who both suffered season-ending injuries right at the start of the campaign. They have been boosted by the returns of Alex Moreno and Jacob Ramsey in recent weeks. Boubacar Kamara, also returns from a one-match suspension after missing the weekend’s draw with Bournemouth.

What They Said

When asked about Emery, Guardiola said: “The fact is there. Take the teams he has managed and when he leaves, they are better. The results, the players, the pressing, the set-pieces, the transitions, they are all exceptional."

Emery said: "We are very motivated. We are fourth in the table. It is a great opportunity for the points and to show how we can face the best team in the league."

Bet Builder Tip

I think if Rodri and Stones were both available to Guardiola we might have seen a tight, defensive performance from his side, but I am not sure he has the personnel to deliver that at the moment. 

Therefore I think there will be plenty of goals. League matches at Villa Park are averaging 4.6 per game and Villa have a home goal difference of +18. City’s away matches haven’t struggled for goals either, averaging 3.5 a game. Premier League matches this season are averaging 3.16 goals per game which is the most since the 1964-65 season. I can easily see a world where there are over 3.5 in this one.

I also think that with Rodri missing and Villa’s home record, the hosts have an excellent chance to get a positive result against City. City are still a team of champions however so I feel like the Aston Villa double chance option is the way to go.

Corners were a big part of City’s match with Spurs last weekend racking up 18 alongside that Villa’s game with Bournemouth also featured 14. So I am going to back over 8.5 corners in this one.

Recommended Bet

Back Aston Villa Double Chance, Over 3.5 goals and Over 8.5 corners @ 7.8