Focus Fixture: Can Aston Villa secure a Champions League place against Liverpool?

This week’s Monday Night Football sees Aston Villa host Liverpool. Unai Emery’s side have the chance to bounce back from their Europa Conference League disappointment by securing a place in next season’s Champions League.

The Form

Aston Villa have looked fatigued in recent weeks. Going deep in Europe has undoubtedly had an impact on performances but they will be pleased with their work this season. Emery’s side have lost their last three competitive matches.

The Villans have a rotten record against Liverpool in recent years. Their last win over Klopp’s side came in October 2020, when they beat Liverpool 6-1 at Villa Park. They have lost six of the seven head-to-heads since. 

Jurgen Klopp’s final season as Liverpool boss looked set to be a memorable one just a couple of months ago. The Reds were top of the league and favourites to lift the Europa League. Things started to unravel following their FA Cup exit at Old Trafford but they have still managed to secure silverware in the form of the League Cup.

Liverpool beat Tottenham 4-2 in their last match and come into this one 11 points clear of their opponents. They have regained their place in the Champions League but Arne Slot will be at the helm next season. Klopp’s focus now will be on finishing the season on a positive note.

The Runners and the Riders

Unai Emery will be unable to call upon several players here. Boubacar Kamara, Emiliano Buendia, Tyrone Mings, Jacob Ramsey and Morgan Rogers are all definitely ruled out. Youri Tielemans and Nicolo Zaniolo face late fitness tests.

Liverpool have dealt with plenty of injuries this season but there are just three players missing for this one. Joel Matip, Thiago Alcantara and Diogo Jota are their only absentees.

Selection

Aston Villa home matches this season have seen an average of 3.89 goals per game, only Sheffield United’s matches in front of their own fans have been more goal-friendly. Therefore, we are backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in the match here. This is a bet that has landed in their last five matches at Villa Park across all competitions.

The Villans' last five head-to-head matches with Liverpool at this ground have seen an average of 5.2 goals per game and this bet has won in their last four. Emery’s side have scored in 17 of their 18 Premier League matches at Villa Park in this campaign, scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game in the process.

They face a Liverpool side that are averaging 2.25 goals per game, the third most in England’s top flight. Klopp’s side have scored in 17 of their 18 league games on the road so this looks a solid bet here.

Recommended Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 1.58

Bet Builder Tip

We are also backing goals in our bet builder tip but adding Liverpool to win at least three more corners than their opponents and Mohamed Salah to score.

Salah grabbed headlines with his touchline bust-up with Jurgen Klopp but he let his football do the talking in the 4-2 win over Tottenham. The Egyptian found the net to take his Premier League tally to 18 goals for the season. Salah scored when Liverpool beat Villa 3-0 at Anfield earlier in the season. He also scored on his last visit to this ground. 

Liverpool also tend to dominate the corner count against Aston Villa. They had seven corners to Villa’s three when they last squared off. Villa didn’t have a single corner and the Reds had six when they last met at Villa Park.

Recommended Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, Mohamed Salah to score and Liverpool -2.5 corners handicap at 5.10