Focus Fixture: A 23/1 Bet Builder for Arsenal's trip to Villa Park

After an opening weekend that saw six of last season’s top eight come out on the winning side, the intensity turns up a notch at Villa Park on Saturday with two of this season’s Champions League teams meeting for the first time. 

The Form

Arsenal and Aston Villa got their season’s underway with three points last Saturday against Wolves and West Ham respectively. 

Mikel Arteta’s men cruised to a 2-0 victory at home thanks to goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka respectively. At the London Stadium, Villa faced a bit more difficulty needing a 79th minute winner from substitute Jhon Duran to get past West Ham. 

On the face of it, Aston Villa and Arsenal’s Premier League head to head record is very one sided. Arsenal have won 31 matches to Aston Villa’s 13, while scoring almost twice the number of goals 98 to 54. 

But in recent times, matches have been closer. The last ten times the two sides have met have yielded five wins each. And since Unai Emery joined Aston Villa in October 2022, Saturday’s hosts lead the head-to-head 2-1, with Arsenal’s win being courtesy of two late goals. 

The last time the two sides faced each other was at the business end of last season with Villa pushing to secure a top four spot and Arsenal going for the title. Emery’s men produced the complete away performance to run out 2-0 winners sparking jubilant scenes in the away end and desolate ones in the home end.

Unfortunately for the Gunners, despite it being the only league game they lost in 2024 they still fell short of the title finishing two points behind Man City. Had they won one of their two matches against Villa last season the Premier League trophy would have ended up in North London. 

Given this it will be interesting to see if there is a bit of extra tension on Saturday night.

The Runners and Riders

Declan Rice appears to be the only slight cause for concern for Arsenal coming into this one. The midfielder went off with four minutes of normal time remaining with cramp being used as the reasoning. Otherwise, the Gunners boast a clean bill of health. 

Unfortunately for Villa, they aren’t afforded the same luxury. Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia are both still recovering from the injuries that saw them miss the entirety of last season. Boubacar Kamara won’t be returning until at least October after injuring his knee in Villa’s 5-0 win over Sheffield United last February.

What They Said

Before the season Unai Emery was asked if the Arsenal match meant anything more to him, he replied: “Not really, they are three points the same as any other”

When asked about the challenge Aston Villa pose Mikel Arteta said: “They dominate every aspect of the game, when you give them space to run they are phenomenal, when there is no space and they have to find it they can do that. In any restarts or set-pieces, they are at it, and that’s why they did what they did.”

Selection

In the Premier League last season, 22% of matches ended in a draw. That may seem like an odd place to start my selection for this match but when you look back at the recent history of fixtures between the two sides, there hasn’t been a draw since November 2012 when Mikel Arteta was in the Arsenal midfield with Aaron Ramsey and Santi Cazorla. That match was 19 games ago and I am fancying the draw again here.

Firstly, it is about time that this freakish string of results comes to an end. Secondly, I think both teams will be happy with a point. 

For Arteta, a point represents more than they got from either match last season and for Emery emerging from a trip to West Ham, where Villa haven’t won in years, and the visit of Arsenal with four points would be a really solid start.

If the game is level with 20 minutes to go then I would expect both managers to be happy to see out a draw.

Back Aston Villa vs Arsenal - draw @ 4.1

Bet Builder Selection

Villa’s dramatic improvement under Emery means that is probably best to look at the most recent three games as a guide for this one. There are some trends that could serve us well when it comes to our bet builder for this match. 

Considering that Aston Villa effectively cost Arsenal the title last season you would think there might be a bit of extra bite in this one. In each of the last three matches Arsenal received the most cards and backing them to do so again would make sense.

Another trend that has been consistent is Aston Villa scoring first. In each of the three games it is Villa that have landed the first punch and at 2.84 to do so again there is an attractive price.

Bet Builder Tip:

Back Aston Villa vs Arsenal - Draw, Arsenal most cards and Aston Villa to score first @ 24.0