Focus Fixture: Can Emery's Villa side put the brakes on Arsenal's title charge?

Arsenal have home advantage when they take on an Aston Villa side that have already beaten them this season. The Gunners are top of the Premier League on goal difference and will need to keep up a relentless pace to finish above Liverpool and Manchester City.

The Form

Mikel Arteta has transformed Arsenal into title contenders but is this the season they finally get over the line? They have scored the most goals in England’s top flight and also boast the best defensive record but there is still plenty of work to be done with seven games left.

Arsenal were the favourites for the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich but they had to settle for a 2-2 draw. The second leg will be on the minds of the supporters. However, the team must focus on one game at a time as they aim to end their long wait to lift the Premier League trophy.

The Gunners have played 11 league matches in 2024. They have won 10 of those with the only setback being a 0-0 draw at the Etihad. Arteta’s side were uncharacteristically defensive in that encounter and were seemingly happy to share the points. That will not be the case when they welcome Aston Villa to the Emirates this weekend.

Aston Villa are fifth in the Premier League and trail Tottenham, who are fourth, on goal difference having played a game more. They could benefit from an additional Champions League place being awarded to the league thanks to their UEFA coefficient ranking but will still have their sights set on finishing above Ange Postecoglou’s side.

The Villans were outsiders in the title race at one stage but they have struggled for consistency since the turn of the year. They have won just five of their 12 Premier League matches and have picked up one win in their last five.

The Runners and the Riders

Arsenal have a crucial clash with Bayern Munich on the horizon but don’t expect wholesale changes from Arteta. Bukayo Saka played the full 90 minutes in the first leg of their Champions League clash despite picking up a knock against Brighton. The winger will probably start once again. The Gunners’ only absentee is Jurrien Timber. He is due to return before the end of the season after injuring his cruciate ligament in August.

Aston Villa have a few key players who will miss this one. Douglas Luz is suspended after picking up another yellow card against Brentford. Matty Cash, Jacob Ramsey, Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendia and Boubacar Kamara are all injured.

What They Said

Plenty of people have had their say on Arsenal’s title credentials this season but Harry Kane remained coy after Bayern visited the Emirates. He said. “I mean they were good last year and they just fell short. It will be tough but who knows? It’s not for me to say.”

Aston Villa were in Europa Conference League action on Thursday night. Unai Emery was keen to ensure his players were fully focused on the home clash with Lille and it remains to be seen whether the shorter preparation for this clash will have an impact. Emery said ahead of that match, “we are speaking about the match tomorrow in the Europa Conference League we are not thinking about the match we are going to play. No way, it is not good for us or for me or everybody. I want to focus on the match tomorrow only.”

Tip 

We are backing both teams to score for our first tip here. Arsenal may have the best defence in the Premier League this season but Aston Villa have proven they can threaten even the most solid of defences.

Unai Emery’s side have beaten both Manchester City and Arsenal already this season. More importantly for this bet, their away matches this season have seen a glut of goals. Aston Villa are scoring an average of 1.75 goals per game on the road and conceding 1.5. Both teams have found the net in their last four away games in the league and Villa have scored on their last four visits to this ground.

The 2-0 win over Luton in Arsenal’s last league match at the Emirates ended a run of three straight home matches where both teams had scored.

Recommended Bet: Both teams to score at 1.91

Bet Builder Tip

We are also backing both teams to score as part of our bet builder. The other angles include; Arsenal to win, under 11.5 corners in the match and Bukayo Saka to score.

Arsenal have won 12 of their 15 home matches in the league this season. They are scoring an average of 2.53 goals per game during that run so should have enough firepower to get the job done with Villa getting on the scoresheet.

There were just six corners when these sides met at Villa Park earlier in the season. The Gunners are conceding just 2.73 corners on average in Premier League matches at the Emirates in this campaign. Arteta’s men are having 7.8 corners in those games which takes the overall match tally to an average of 10.53. That’s still in line with  what we need for this bet to win but we should see even fewer here,

Bukayo Saka scored the opening goal in the draw with Bayern Munich midweek. He also scored in Arsenal’s last Premier League game. The England international has scored 14 league goals already this season and should have some joy here. His average of 0.37 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes played puts him in the 87th percentile when compared with all other wingers and attacking midfielders across Europe’s top five leagues.

Recommended Bet: Arsenal to win, both teams to score, under 11.5 corners & Saka to score at 6.80