AFCON 2023 Preview: Can Salah break AFCON curse

The 2023 African Cup of Nations gets underway this weekend with hosts Ivory Coast playing Guinea-Bissau live on Sky Sports. 

The tournament was pushed back to this year after concerns about holding a tournament in West Africa’s rainy season. 

This tournament is typically very open and has been won by 15 different countries in its 34 editions. Egypt are the most successful country with seven wins and three final appearances.

Despite favourites Senegal coming out on top last time, it isn’t always that simple. When Angola triumphed in 2019 they were sixth favourites at odds of 14.0.

The last two tournaments in 2021 and 2019 saw a goals per game average of 1.92 and 1.96, respectively. Something worth bearing in mind when compiling your bet builders. 

The Groups

The 24 teams are split into six groups of four. The top two teams from each group will progress into the round of 16 and then it’s the knockout football we know and love.

Group A: Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau
Group B: Egypt, Ghana, Cape Verde, Mozambique
Group C: Senegal, Cameroon, Guinea, Gambia
Group D: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Angola
Group E: Tunisia, Mali, South Africa, Namibia
Group F: Morocco, DR Congo, Zambia, Tanzania

The Contenders

It is worth saying that the competition is pretty open with nine of the 24 teams being at odds of lower than 20.0. For this summer’s Euro 2024 that number is just six. 

Morocco - 6.2

Morocco became the first African country to reach the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup just over a year ago in Qatar. Therefore it is no surprise that the same team find themselves as favourites to win this tournament. Morocco possesses a lot of talent and names like Ashraf Hakimi, Hakim Ziyech and Sofyan Amrabat will be very familiar to European audiences. 

Senegal - 6.6

In 2021, Senegal beat Egypt on penalties to win their first African Cup of Nations. They come into this tournament with a very strong squad led by Kalidou Koulibaly and spearheaded by Sadio Mane. They have plenty of Premier League experience with six players currently active in the league, including 21-year-old Pape Sarr who has been excellent for Tottenham this season. If Mane can replicate the form he used to show in a Liverpool shirt then they will have a great chance. According to Opta, Senegal are the team most likely to be crowned champions at 12.8%. However, it is worth noting that only on three occasions have teams been able to win consecutive tournaments and it is now 22 years since Cameroon managed it. 

Ivory Coast - 7.0

The hosts and two-time winners of the tournament will be led by Nottingham Forest’s Serge Aurier. Unlike most tournaments being host is no guarantee of success, of the last ten tournaments only two have been won by the home team. While the glory days of Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Gervinho are gone there is still plenty of talent in the Ivory Coast squad. In Frank Kessie they have an intimidating midfield presence and up front Sebastian Haller, who made his comeback from cancer 11 months ago, will be a constant threat. 

Algeria - 8.2

The Algerians are also two-time winners, most recently in 2019, and former Manchester City star Riyad Mahrez is their star man. Fans of Premier League trivia will enjoy the appearances of former Leicester and Newcastle frontman Islam Slimani and former Tottenham midfielder Nabil Bentaleb. But keep an eye on Baghad Bounedjah, who has scored 26 goals in his 63 appearances for his country. 

Egypt - 10.0

Mohamed Salah arrives at this tournament in fine form, he has the most goal contributions of anyone in the Premier League with 22. At 31, this is likely to be the last time he will be at the peak of his powers and he will be desperate to add an African Cup of Nations to his CV. His Egyptian side finished runner up in 2017 and most notably in 2021 when they lost out to Senegal on penalties. Aside from Mohamed Elneny and, former Aston Villa winger, Trezeguet, Salah’s supporting cast is the weakest of any of the favourites. Only five of the squad have played over 40 games for their country and only three play in major European leagues.

Nigeria - 10.5

Nigeria’s squad will have a familiar ring to it for British football fans with seven players currently plying their trade over here. Their star is Napoli striker Victor Osimhen who himself has been heavily linked with a move to the Premier League. Osimhen has been a revelation since he came into the international side scoring 20 goals in just 27 caps. Alongside Osimhen, in attacking areas they will have Kelechi Iheanacho, Alex Iwobi and Ademola Lookman. It is at the other end of the pitch that will be a cause for concern though, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five matches. 

It is worth pointing out that Tunisia, Ghana and Cameroon are all currently priced at 17.0 as well which may also offer some value.

Recommended Bet

Back Senegal to win the 2023 African Cup of Nations @ 6.6