AC Milan v Inter Milan Tips: A city split as Champions League final beckons

The Derby della Madonnina is one of the fiercest in the world. A battle between the blue and red sides of Milan and this time they’re looking to claim the ultimate bragging rights - a spot in the Champions League final. 

Neither were really tipped to get this far - both have overcome the odds to make it into the final four. But now they face off in their 236th official meeting knowing that they’re just a few victories away from reclaiming a prize that has eluded them for so long. 

AC Milan, a former powerhouse of the European game, haven’t lifted the trophy since they secured it for a seventh time back in 2007, while Inter Milan’s third and most recent win came under Jose Mourinho in 2010. Before that, though, two games at the San Siro lay in wait. 

History of the Derby di Milano 

AC and Inter met for the first time in 1908 and have played 234 official matches since. 636 goals have been scored and millions of tears shed. The two Italian giants meet in Serie A every year, but this game will see them meet in European competition for the first time since 2005 when that iconic photo of Marco Materazzi and Rui Costa was taken. 

Inter just edge it in terms of historical victories with 87, but it’s not by much. Milan have 79 wins of their own and have never lost in their four Champions League meetings. They have also knocked I Nerazzurri out of the competition both times.

Simone Inzaghi are the favourites (1.71 to reach the final) on this occasion, though, and it’s not hard to see why given their nine wins from their last 14 meetings and five wins on the bounce since mid-April. 

Inzaghi got one over on Stefano Pioli in the Supercoppa Italiana in January with a resounding 3-0 victory, and they’re 2.56 to be victorious in the first leg here. 

‘Home’ advantage

When both teams play at the same stadium it kind of nullifies the idea of home advantage, but it’s certainly worth saying that this week’s hosts have performed well at the San Siro this season.

I Rossoneri have been beaten just four times in 90 minutes since the start of 2022 at the famous Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, and have kept seven clean sheets there since a shock defeat to Sassuolo in January. 

They won 3-2 when they were at home against Inter in the league this season, and all three of their last wins have ended up with both teams scoring. If you back that to happen again you can grab 7.6. 

Keeping it tight

More often than not games between these two have been decided by the odd goal and it could be the same again with so much on the line here. Milan to win by one goal is priced at 4.6, while Inter to do so is 4.1.

It may be tightly-fought given the nature of it, so it would be no shock to see this match being tight and cagey compared to recent meetings. 

Lautaro Martínez has rediscovered his goalscoring touch though, with six goals in his last six games, and he will be eager to add to his goal tally in Europe’s biggest club competition. 

AC Milan v Inter Milan Tips

Inter to win @ 2.56
Lautaro Martínez anytime goalscorer @ 2.98