World Darts Championship final tips

And so we’re down to just two as Michael Smith and Peter Wright battle it out for the World Darts Championship title at Alexandra Palace on Monday night. 

They’ve been the two best players throughout the tournament so it’s a fitting finale as they battle out the best of 13 sets for the £500,000 first prize and coveted Sid Waddell Trophy. 

Finalists had to dig deep to make it 

Both men have truly earned their places in the final, with both having played magnificently throughout but also having to dig deep and come through some epic battles. 

‘Bully Boy’ Smith played in two match of the tournament contenders back-to-back in the last 16 and the quarters when taking out Welsh duo Jonny Clayton (4-3) and Gerwyn Price (5-4).  

If beating the defending champion and World No.1 in a deciding set a round after beating the most in-form player in the world in 2021 6-4 in a deciding set isn’t enough to earn a place in the final then nothing is. 

There was a danger he could take his eye off the ball against James Wade in the semis, but he maintained his form and was an easy 6-3 winner. 

Wright made smooth progress until being pushed all the way by youngster Callan Rydz in the quarters, before a 6-4 victory over Gary Anderson in a stunning semi-final of the highest quality. Even Wright himself said it may well have been his best ever darts on the Ally Pally stage.

Will winning final experience count? 

Wright is appearing in his third world final having won one and lost one, while it’s a second crack at the title for Smith who lost the 2019 final – which is one of five major finals he’s been in without winning any. 

That run of losing finals was a big negative for Smith coming in, and who knows if the spectre of those five defeats will appear on Monday night, but he’s looked a different player from the very start here – when he averaged 106 in his first match. 

He’s come through two exhilarating matches that he’s usually on the wrong end of, but held his nerve to see off two of the best players on the planet, but now he faces another who knows how to win the big ones. 

At 31, there’s still plenty of time for Smith and many think a win here could open the floodgates for such a darting talent – and for inspiration he need look no further than his final opponent. 

Wright lost 12 of his first 13 finals in PDC premier tournaments before winning the 2020 world title aged 49, and that’s led to a prolific spell with him winning five out of six tournament finals over the last couple of years. 

This could be the start of something really special for Smith, but against a man who knows what winning a world title can do for your career, it’ll be a psychological mountain to climb.  

Stats say nothing between them 

Wright is the slight 1.81 favourite with Smith at 2.22 but there really is nothing between them in terms of how they’ve performed so far. 

Incredibly the two men have almost identical tournament averages with Smith on 100.65 and Wright 100.66, and in terms of 180s Smith holds just a slight advantage here with 59 to Wright’s 55.  

Snakebite did, however, break the record for most 180s in a match when he hit an incredible 24 against Anderson in the semi-final. It means both men could break Anderson’s tournament record of 71 maximums during the final. 

It means that backing 33 180s in the final at 1.82 may just be the bet that makes most appeal out of the lot – given that if there’s one thing we can be sure of it’s that both of these will find that treble 20 with alarming regularity. 

Smith has the highest match average with 106.32 but in the shorter second round, and with Wright’s best of 104.38 coming in the semi-final then that has to carry a bit more weight. 

Bully Boy has recorded the four highest set averages of the tournament, and he can reach a level that wins sets in the blink of an eye, but Wright will be a bit more consistent and that contrast will make for a fascinating watch. 

The way this tournament has been going it’s hard to imagine this not being a close contest, and although the line is high at 11.5 sets I’d still play the over at 2.26 as both men will dig in if behind, and never give up. 

They’re so evenly matched as well that it will be decided by the narrowest of margins, and although Wright’s experience makes him a worthy favourite we’ll plump for Smith to just find that extra gear when it matters to pull away for a first world title. 

Maybe even the first of many... 

Prediction: Smith 7-5 Wright 

Reccomended bets

Michael Smith to win at 2.22

Over 32.5 total 180s in the match at 1.82

Smith over 16.5 180s in the match at 1.92

Over 11.5 sets in the match at 2.26