NBA weekend tips: Nuggets can add to Lakers' misery on Sunday

It's another action-packed basketball weekend Stateside - here's our expert selection of the best bets from three matches on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics

Saturday 2 April, 12.30am 

After going 24-4 over an extraordinary spell that eventually took the Boston Celtics to the top of the Eastern Conference last weekend, the fine margins of that particular race have been brought into focus with consecutive losses. 

From first to fourth in the standings in the blink of an eye. Or rather in the split-second it took for the C’s starting centre Robert Williams to tear his meniscus, an injury that required a small surgery that will keep the defensive anchor in port for around four weeks. 

In his absence, the Celtics lost to East rivals Miami in midweek with Grant Williams no substitute in his (sur)namesake’s place. But still the Green Machine is 1.08 to bounce right back to winning ways at home to the lowly Indiana Pacers late on Friday, an opponent which has conceded an average of 122.1 points over its last ten games.

Boston has a small cushion over Toronto – who defeated them on Monday in OT - to retain the fourth seed. With the playoffs barely a fortnight away, the Raptors are the first round opponent to be avoided – primarily as the lone NBA market where unvaccinated players will be barred from taking the court. 

But Robert Williams’ ten points and 9.6 rebounds will be sorely missed when the post-season begins, perhaps even putting in question whether the 8% chance that the markets give his team as fourth favourites for the title is a sound bet. 

Oddly, it was been scoring woes that have knocked Boston off track. Not ideal when their final three regular season contests involve trips to Chicago, Milwaukee and Memphis.

Although the Pacers should be left in the slow lane, the Celtics may need to grind their way through the next month rather than working on blowouts. 

Recommended bet: Indiana with +15.5 over Boston @ 1.84 

The Lakers have suffered a fall from grace this season and their quest for another Championship appears to be over

Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Saturday 2 April, 5.30pm, Sky Sports Arena

Off back-to-back losses to presumed championship rivals Milwaukee and Phoenix, the Sixers were further exposed in a Friday defeat to lowly Detroit. 

In one sense, the 76ers won their trade with the Brooklyn Nets by virtue of James Harden being available to play while Ben Simmons remains a spectator.

However in 16 games with his new team, Harden is putting up 22.5 points (his lowest in ten seasons if you discount his half-year in Brooklyn), taking fewer shots since his third and final campaign in OKC, and has a PER which is over six less than his high watermark in Houston.

Over Philly’s last 15 games, they are a middling 8-7 on an unimpressive 109.7 points scored on average on a differential of -0.1. Worse than the Knicks, as it happens. Like Boston, are their title odds of 13 not long enough? 

They host Charlotte on Saturday with Hornets winning eight of their last ten amid a challenging schedule. In that spell, they’re sixth in scoring (119.3) and fifth in differential (+8.1) in the NBA. And that’s a threat to a Sixers group who are not quite meshing as one.

Recommended bet: Charlotte with +2 over Philadelphia 

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

Sunday 3 April, 8.30pm, Sky Sports Arena 

LeBron James is not fully healthy. Neither is Anthony Davis. Even if the future Hall of Famers can limp through the remainder of the regular season, there is no guarantee that the LA Lakers will even sneak into the Play-In tournament in the face of opposition from San Antonio and New Orleans. 

What a fall from grace for the Lakers to be priced at 110 for a championship they believed might be theirs, following eight losses out of ten. 

Three games in as many days will not help their health one bit when the Denver Nuggets come to visit on Sunday. Their guests, on a mere back-to-back, have overachieved this term, a key reason why Nikola Jokic would be a deserved repeat MVP. 

The Nuggets flatter a little. Coming into the weekend, they were a mere 20-22 against .500+ opponents and that’s a trend that’s not altered lately. But they have feasted on bad teams. And the Lakers – as we cannot deny - are bad. 

Recommended bet: Denver to win with a handicap of -10 

Recommended bets

Indiana +15.5 @ 1.8 

Charlotte +2 

Denver -10