NBA weekend tips: Bucks looking to avenge Suns defeat in Finals repeat

It's another busy weekend of Stateside basketball action, so here's a look at three of the most interesting match-ups. 

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Saturday 5 March, 12am GMT

The Sixers have not lost a single game with James Harden in their team. But that’s 3-0. Hold the parade just yet. The Beard has a habit of starting strongly with a franchise but then burning out in spectacular style.

Despite early signs of a good fit with his new team-mates, Joel Embiid included, it is way too early to anoint him as a blessed upgrade on the departed Ben Simmons.

But it could be much worse. With his addition translating into the Sixers now outscoring opponents by over 20 points per 100 possessions, Harden is averaging over 25 points and 10 assists with a notable energy on defence which has often been his weakest link. 

Challenging the King of Isolation to continue to buy into the collective is the chief challenge awaiting Doc Rivers, particularly with the energetic young Cleveland Cavaliers riding into town on Saturday. 

So far, the perennial All Star has helped repel the free-falling New York Knicks plus the Minnesota Timberwolves. Cleveland – just two games worse off than their hosts with a 36-26 record - will pose a few more questions despite losing four out of five, including a 103-93 reverse on their February trip to the City of Brotherly Love. 

Yet, short of the distraction around Simmons, the 76ers are now second favourites for the title among Eastern Conference teams at 7.8. We can make a better call over their next four games which also includes clashes with Miami, Chicago and a reunion for Harden with the Brooklyn Nets 

Given the Cavs’ scoring struggles, there’s good value in looking under 220 total points at 1.88, a tally exceeded only twice in Cleveland’s last six appearances. And for the 76ers to extend Harden’s honeymoon, for a few days more at least.

Recommended bet: Philadelphia on a handicap of -7.5 @ 1.92

Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks

Saturday 5 March, 10pm GMT, Sky Sports Arena

The Mavs have hit their stride mid-season, winning nine of eleven around the All-Star break including another valedictory triumph against Golden State on Thursday. And it’s defence that has got them there, conceding at a clip of 102.9 points in that spell, just above the uber-stingy Boston Celtics.

Bad news for Sacramento who are officially to continue their 0-29 mark as a franchise of earning a .500+ record with anyone not named Rick Adelman as head coach. Dangerous too for all those teams – of which there are probably already six – who can already view a playoff chase as genuinely futile, even with 20 or so games remaining and the added carrot of the Play-In option now available.

On the road, the Kings have been especially vulnerable – going 9-23. Although they have won two of their last three games on their travels, they have still lost five out of seven, a spell in which they have been out-scored by 8.6 points.

Is this the advent of a slow decline towards a lottery ball bounce? Possibly, although perhaps this isn’t a night to rely on Sacramento for a lame fourth quarter collapse. The Mavericks, curiously, are the least productive team in the final period this term, scoring 24.6 points on average on a measly +0.1 points differential.

But Dallas are certainly worth a punt on a start of -6 points with another opportunity to impose a stranglehold and climb the standings.

Recommended bet: under 220.5 total points @ 1.95

The Suns guard Chris Paul will be hoping to inflict another defeat on the Bucks in Sunday night's repeat of last year's NBA Finals (Photo: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA)

Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks

Sunday 6 March, 8.30pm GMT, Sky Sports Arena

Nothing like a rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals to whet the Sunday appetite. Especially with the Bucks seeking to avenge the vengeance taken by Phoenix with a 131-107 spanking a month ago. However, these are not the Suns of back then.

No Chris Paul, nor Devin Booker. No real problem during a relatively benign schedule spell of eight games, including Saturday’s home date with the Knicks, in which the current NBA title favourites – with an 18% chance according to the markets – have coped without their floor leader, and latterly without their torchbearer.

The Bucks and a Thursday trip to Miami aside, the Suns have lucked out with their softest stretch coinciding with their key absentees. It is not really until late March that the tests will come thick and fast again.

The key, perhaps, is whether they can put the reigning champions under early pressure. Milwaukee are a dreadful 5-14 when trailing at half-time while Phoenix are a majestic 41-4 while leading at the break.

The Bucks, averaging a league-best 124 points over their previous ten games, need to make these opportunities count as the credibility of their hopes of a repeat ebb and flow. Expect a shootout at the Forum to re-take supremacy.

Recommended bet: over 235 total points

Recommended bets

Philadelphia with -7.5 handicap @ 1.92

Under 220.5 in Sacramento-Dallas @ 1.95

Over 235 in Phoenix-Milwaukee