NBA Finals Game 1 tips: Warriors and Celtics set for epic battle

Mark Woods previews Game 1 of the NBA Finals between Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics, on Thursday night in San Francisco.

Will the Warriors or the Celtics reign supreme?

And then there were two. The Boston Celtics repping the East. The Golden State Warriors despatched from the West. Ready to duel over a best-of-seven series for the 2022 NBA Championship. 

Deservedly so. Even if neither were top seeds from the regular season in their respective Conferences, these have been places well-earned. We are surely set for a compelling clash between two defensive juggernauts who also possess the capacity to score quickly and efficiently. So who is the best bet for the crown? 

The markets say that the Warriors, in their sixth Finals in eight years, have a 60% chance of underlining their dynastic claim with a fourth title of the Steph Curry – Klay Thompson – Draymond Green – Steve Kerr era. 

The Warriors have 123 games of collective experience of this stage in their DNA. The Celtics? Not one.

Rebuilding the Dubs

Yet the Dubs have known the lows since they were last here in 2019. Crawling to the worst record in the NBA two years ago when injuries and the exit of Kevin Durant decimated their ranks, this has been a rebuild of sorts.

New pieces, like Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole added. And momentum ebbing and flowing before a playoff run that was no odds-on certainty. 

Averaging a league-best 114.5 points per game in the post-season, Golden State has increased its offensive output while conceding 109.1. 

The Celtics, numerically at least, will be a potent match. Their extraordinary defence has conceded just 101.0 per during these playoffs while they have scored an average of 107.1. But with a number of close contests which extended right to the last possession of their 4-3 ousting of the Miami Heat in the West Finals, their fourth quarters have hinted at a possible Achilles heel.

While the Warriors have outscored foes by 5.9 in the final period, the C’s are up by just 1.7. Boston has leaned on acquiring large leads early on – and bolting the door shut. The hosts are 1.83 to win the fourth in Game 1. 

Golden State's Steph Curry was injured early on in his side's 110-88 defeat by Boston earlier this season

Return of the juggernaut

Ominously, Golden State have truly looked like the juggernaut of the last decade over the past six weeks. Smarter, stronger, and able to shrug off the turnovers that come with their high-stakes, high-return ball. 

They are more rested too from their quick culling of the Mavs. And in Thompson, there lies an emotional depth charge from his mid-season comeback following a layoff that began in the 2019 Finals and which some feared would never end.

Gary Payton may return too from his spell on the sidelines. That would be a major boon in trying to contain Jayson Tatum who has averaged 26.5 points in his two meetings with the Warriors this season. 

Both resulted in road wins – the first a 111-97 snatch from GSW, the second a 110-88 mauling by Boston with Curry injured early on. In reality, neither result offers too many pointers at this vital juncture. 

Celtics are the underdogs

Boston - looking to snap a tie with the hated LA Lakers and capture a record 18^th banner - are 2.38 underdogs to prevail in Thursday’s opener with the hosts pegged at 1.66. 

The Celtics have proven they can triumph on their travels but to do so, they will likely need to keep the overall points tally below 210.5 points or come out with an early blitz. 

However the Warriors’ big guns have seen this all before and found different means to survive and toast success. My prediction? A chess match in which multiple games will be decided by five points or fewer but Golden State to win these NBA Finals 4-2 and return to the top of the mountain. 

Recommended bet

Over 210.5 total points in Game 1 @ 1.84