NFL Draft preview: the state of play ahead of this week's crucial picks

It’s been one of the most frenetic and surprising NFL off-seasons in living memory, and even before we arrived at the Draft, teams have already been staking their claims to be the next Super Bowl champion. 

The Los Angeles Rams have changed the game with their Hollywood approach of giving up picks in the NFL Draft in order to trade for big-name established players that saw them win the Super Bowl. 

So teams all of a sudden are wondering if having a stack of NFL Draft picks is that golden collateral that it once was, or whether they should now be used as currency to build a team to win now. 

And in an off-season full of surprises, and big-name moves, teams have shown us whether they’re in win-now mode or building slowly for the future, while at least a couple of big teams (we’re looking at you, Chiefs and Packers) are almost caught in the middle. 

After a summer where the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson have all been making the headlines, here’s how the NFL landscape looks.  

Tom Brady reversed his retirement decision, and will attempt to lead Tampa Bay to another Super Bowl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Super Bowl odds: 11.5) 

You can’t overstate what a boost it was for the Bucs when Tom Brady ended his retirement after just six weeks or so, and that has seen their Super Bowl odds cut right back down to second favourites. 

Brady isn’t stupid, he knows he can win with this team, which is why he’s also restructured his contract to free-up more money to re-sign a lot of their other star names, so apart from a few spots they look in good shape. 

Buffalo Bills

(Super Bowl odds: 8.5) 

The Bills have not been far away the last couple of years, so it’s all about adding that extra spark to get them over the hill, and they’ve followed the Rams’ lead – quite literally, as they’ve signed Von Miller after he helped LA win the Super Bowl in February. 

Miller had four sacks in the playoffs, including two in the Super Bowl, and even though he’s 33 he was handed a huge $120m deal by Buffalo to bring that star power and experience to the Bills’ defence. Buffalo are now the Super Bowl favourites as a result. 

Cleveland Browns

(Super Bowl odds: 20) 

Talk about going all-in, the Browns are fed-up with being disappointing dark horses so decided to make a huge and controversial splash by signing troubled quarterback Deshaun Watson on a record $230m deal. Fully guaranteed! 

The deal will change the landscape for future QB contracts, and it’s even more mind-blowing considering Watson is still facing civil lawsuits from 22 women alleging sexual misconduct. He could yet get a suspension and that’s reflected in Cleveland’s odds. 

They also brought in Pro Bowl receiver Amari Cooper from Dallas so have an uber-talented duo to build around – but the uncertainty about Watson’s availability is limiting the belief that they can challenge. The move also hasn’t gone down too well with their fanbase. 

Denver Broncos 

(Super Bowl odds: 19) 

The Broncos could be a dark horse this season after they spent big to bring in QB Russell Wilson via a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks. No QB has won as many games as Wilson during their first 10 NFL seasons. 

He’s been to two Super Bowls, winning one, and he’s got a talented crop of young receivers to work with, a brute of a second-year running back in Javonte Williams, and a solid offensive line. 

Facing the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders is a tough assignment in the AFC West, but Wilson has been there and done it, and after years of sticking plaster replacements for Peyton Manning, Denver finally have a serious QB to go to war with. 

Las Vegas Raiders 

(Super Bowl odds: 36) 

Vegas is hosting the Draft but the Raiders don’t have a pick until the third round, so they’ve brought in star power through trading for Green Bay receiver Davante Adams – possibly the best all-round pass catcher in the league. 

They paid a big price, including an average of $28m a year in salary, to pair Adams up with his former college QB Derek Carr, who also got a new deal. Even better he has Adams to go with the shifty Hunter Renfrow and dominant Darren Waller in what is suddenly a deadly looking offence. 

Adding veteran pass rusher Chandler Jones to the monstrous Maxx Crosby gives them bite as they face Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a season. After making the playoffs last season, they could be challenging again. 

Miami Dolphins

(Super Bowl odds: 34) 

Miami are really following LA’s lead as they’ve splashed out big time to bring in offensive tackle Terron Armstead and speedy receiver Tyreek Hill – who left Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to cash a record $120m deal with the Dolphins. 

With only four Draft picks, Miami can’t add too much from college, but they’ve added Cedrick Wilson to Hill and Jaylen Waddle at receiver and also brought in running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds to form a track team of speedy athletes at the skill positions. 

It must feel like Christmas for third-year QB Tua Tagovailoa to have this wealth of talent around him, but it also means he has to prove he’s their franchise QB or they’ll move on, and quickly, given the talent they’ve assembled. Tua’s unconvincing NFL career so far is the main reason their odds are so big.  

Los Angeles Rams

(Super Bowl odds: 13) 

The Rams are trying to run it back this season, and although they’ve got eight Draft picks they’ve none in the first two rounds, so they’ve dipped into the market again to bolster their Super Bowl winning squad. 

Losing Von Miller was a blow, but they replaced him with tackling machine Bobby Wagner, a cornerstone of Seattle’s Legion of Boom defence, to add that extra leadership and tenacity into their squad. 

They handed Matthew Stafford a new deal but still had funds available to sign receiver Allen Robinson, who could have a field day in this side, having had three 1,000-yard seasons with dodgy QBs at Jacksonville and Chicago. They still look the team to beat.  

LA Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp will be aiming to help his side win another Super Bowl

Who needs a big Draft? 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the first pick again like last year, and they also have the joint-most overall picks along with the Kansas City Chiefs with 12. 

The Jags bagged Travor Lawrence last season, but now need to let their QB develop and at least give him half a chance of showing his college form in the NFL. 

It’s a deep class of college players but without much standout talent, so the likes of the Eagles, Lions, Jets, Giants, Packers, Chiefs and Saints all having two first-round picks makes it interesting. 

The Lions, Jets and Giants have been awful for years, and it’ll take something special for any of those to make a playoff run this season, but the Saints could be ones to watch depending on their picks. 

Two teams stand out though as needing to get this draft spot-on to make the most of their elite and expensive quarterbacks: 

Kansas City Chiefs

(Super Bowl odds: 12.5) 

Patrick Mahomes’ bumper contract is starting to squeeze the Chiefs, and he’s lost his star receiver Tyreek Hill as a result, so with money tight they need to use their plethora of picks to keep them top of the AFC West. 

The Chiefs, Chargers are Raiders are loading up after watching Kansas City win the division six years running, and they’ll be vulnerable if they don’t replace Hill at receiver, bolster their offensive line, and add some juice to their pass rush. 

Six picks in the first three rounds gives them every chance of addressing some needs, but as of now they’re not as strong as their position as third-favourites for the Super Bowl suggests. Mahomes is magic, but they are still vulnerable unless their draft class make an instant impact. 

Green Bay 

(Super Bowl odds: 14.5) 

We thought it was his last ride last season, but the way they slumped out of the playoffs may have helped Aaron Rodgers commit to at least two more seasons in Green Bay. A bumper new contract also helps! 

Davante Adams left for Las Vegas so Rodgers now needs some reinforcements at receiver or the Packers risk wasting the four-time and back-to-back MVP, who has still somehow only been to (and won) one Super Bowl. 

The Packers haven’t picked a receiver in the first round for 20 years, but with two first-round picks that could change this year. It needs to change, in fact, as a genuine talent is needed to give Rodgers the chance to take this team back to the big time.